The Houthis after the Yemeni cease-fire

In the almost decade-old civil war in Yemen, the adherence to a cease-fire that began in April 2022 by the Shiite Zaydi Houthi rebels suggests they are now prepared to live with a political outcome to the war that leaves them in control of most, but not all, Yemenis. The Houthis seem prepared to settle for less than complete control…

January 27, 2023
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Syria’s dissolving line between state and nonstate actors

In Syria’s civil war, now entering its 12th year, the state/nonstate divide has become increasingly blurred. Nowhere is this more evident than in the practices adopted by ruling elites in regime- and opposition-held areas to ensure access to resources. Over time, both state actors and nonstate armed groups have produced parallel, interconnected, and interdependent political…

January 27, 2023
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The risk of election violence in the United States in 2024

Despite fears that the 2022 U.S. midterm elections would see a reprise of January 6-like political violence, the elections occurred with no mobs storming state capitals or other attacks. Improved law enforcement deserves much of the credit: January 6 was a shock, and both federal and state officials were far more vigilant this time around.…

January 27, 2023
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Libya’s hybrid armed groups dilemma

As we look ahead to 2023, it is easy, indeed facile, to predict the worst in Libya. Political and societal divisions persist, human rights are flagrantly violated, weapons are aplenty, negative foreign interference continues, the list goes on. Yet, the October 2020 ceasefire agreement remains intact, though not fully implemented, and the prospect of return…

January 27, 2023
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Nonstate armed actors in 2023: Persistence amid geopolitical shuffles

Four factors will critically shape the landscape of nonstate armed actors and illicit economies in 2023 and beyond: the new geopolitics; persisting structural weaknesses of government responses to nonstate armed actors, amplified by the lasting effects of COVID-19; the synthetic drugs revolution sweeping global crime markets; and the reshaping of criminal actors and their power…

January 27, 2023
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