Who Blinks First -the Conflict in Europe

by Andrey Kortunov

The summary is Kortunov’s, but I added at the end his paragraph about the Russian minimalist and (presumably though he doesn’t say so) maximalist goals in the war. It is interesting to see what Russian political scientists see as minimalist.

• The unfortunate conflict between Russia and Ukraine started almost a year and a half ago, and many experts in Russia, Europe, Asia, in the United States claimed that this conflict was a game changer. It was being said that the world would never be the same again as revolutionary shifts in global politics and in the global economy had been triggered. But then, almost the same narratives have been used for the COVID-19 pandemic. It is typical for experts and for politicians to exaggerate and dramatise crises.
• One year and four months after the beginning of this conflict, if just one word were to be used to describe the preliminary outcomes of this dramatic crisis, the word would be resilience. All the participants, as also the international system at large, have demonstrated a remarkable degree of resilience.
• Looking at the international system at large, there have been major disturbances. However, the impact has not been as catastrophic as it is being made to look. The global energy crisis is back at approximately the same level that it was on the eve of this crisis, just like the prices of major food items. Unlike the financial crisis of 2008-09, there has been no global recession. Some financial institutions turned out to be shaky, with banks in the U.S. and Switzerland collapsing, but the system remains intact.
• Whatever the outcome of this conflict, it will have a formative impact on the international system. As regards the future, arguably the most important independent variable is the current deglobalisation cycle and whether it will continue for a long time or is it coming to an end. Will we see a new attempt at globalisation in terms of an EU rise of direct foreign investments, international trade, international migrations and trans-border information exchanges? This image is unclear, but it will depend on major powers. And, of course, India remains one of the key actors.
• It’s trivial to say that India is the largest global democracy; it can also be argued India is the largest global swing state in the sense that India is trying very carefully to balance the two dimensions of its foreign policy. On the one hand, it remains a major Eurasia power, and this year it presides over the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It is also an active member of BRICS. At the same time, India has its Indo-Pacific face where it is very active and within which it invests a great deal into the bilateral relations with the United States with other maritime countries of the Indo-Pacific region. The position taken by India in preparation for the G 20 meeting, that will take place later this year will be a very important indicator of Indian ambitions and aspirations. It can only be hoped that the Indian position will not be limited to mostly tactical, narrowly defined national security or national development issues, but it will involve more ambitious, more general ideas on reforming the global world order. This is a unique opportunity for India to demonstrate its ability to perform not as a regional or a continental but as a global leader. This year will tell us a lot about the future direction of Indian foreign policy, especially considering that India will face elections next year. It is hoped that the continuity in Indian foreign policy, including its relations with the Russian Federation, will continue.
• As regards the endgame, there are two narratives in Russia. First is the minimalist narrative, which implies that the goal of the military operation is, the demilitarisation and de-Nazification of Ukraine and to protect the people of Donbas. And if, indeed, these are the goals, then probably, Russia should focus on securing the regions that have joined the Russian Federation recently. That implies taking hold of the territories left in Ukrainian hands and creating a buffer zone for the West. But the other narrative, it’s not about territory. It’s about the nature of the political regime in Ukraine. If this regime is not changed, we will see an emphatically anti-Russian revanche seeking irredentist leadership, which will look for opportunities to start it all over again. The only way to avoid it is to make sure that some political changes will turn Ukraine into a country that is not as hostile to Russia as it is right now and where the Western influence will not be as significant as it is today.

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Andrey Kortunov, PhD

Academic Director of the Russian International Affairs Council.
Andrey Kortunov graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) in 1979 and completed his postgraduate studies at the Institute for U.S. and Canada Studies of the USSR Academy of Sciences in 1982. He holds a PhD in History. Dr Kortunov completed internships at the Soviet embassies in London and Washington, and at the Permanent Delegation of the USSR to the UN.
In 1982–1995, Dr Kortunov held various positions in the Institute for U.S. and Canada Studies, including Deputy Director. He taught at universities around the world, including the University of California, Berkeley. In addition, he led several public organizations involved in higher education, social sciences and social development.
Since 2011 till 2023, Andrey Kortunov has been the Director General of RIAC. He is a member of expert and supervisory committees and boards of trustees of several Russian and international organizations. His academic interests include contemporary international relations and Russian foreign policy.