I would make the case that the current armed conflict between Israel and Hamas has the risk of being one of if not the most intense conflicts in the history of post-occupation Gaza.

Benjamin Netanyahu has been facing massive protests against his moves to neuter the Israeli supreme court, with large impacts cohesion of Israeli society. Nothing does a better job of unifying the Israelis than a significant attack. Netanyahu will of course use large-scale retaliation a means of gaining political status.

A lot of the traditional brakes on Israeli retaliation result from a international criticism against Israeli and diplomatic pressure from the US which has a significant component derived from US adversaries. Russia’s involved in a war of aggression with Ukraine, China and North Korea are complicit in supporting Russia to varying degrees. Non-aligned nations like India are remaining silent while the enjoy discounted oil sales.

It seems less likely that these nations are going to mount vigorous diplomatic campaigns to protest Israeli action against Hamas, particularly given the brazen nature of the most recent attacks and actual manned incursions into Israeli territory which creates something of a moral advantage for Israel. The EU may just be too weary of the war in Ukraine to adopt their usual high minded diplomatic pressure.

It largely leaves it to the Saudis to have any significant leverage against the Israelis. Although its an open question whether the Saudis are willing to see supporting the Palestinian cause as a central tenet of their foreign policy when their most likely focus is on alliances interested in countering Iranian competition in their own back yard. This seems especially true given the axis of Iran-Syria-Hamas. If supporting the Palestinian cause has a significant side benefit for Iran and its proxies, it seems more likely that the Saudis will give the Israelis something of a pass.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Israelis conduct a significant ground incursion into Gaza, one that could have a durable change in boundaries of Gaza or significant ongoing Israeli security presence. Netanyahu will be empowered to not just settle for putting points on this round’s scorecard, he’s going to be interested in throwing knockout blows and there’s going to little energy for stopping him.