The Future of Warfare in Russian Military Thinking

by Maria Engqvist, Jonas Kjellén, Carolina Vendil Pallin and Emelie Sandvad.

Abstract

The Russo-Ukrainian War exhibits the features of a transitional war, reshaping Russian military thought and force development under pressure. The war has exposed structural weaknesses across the services while catalysing debate over the future of warfare. Russian analysts are divided between preserving traditional concepts of mass, manoeuvre, and firepower, and pursuing adaptations suited to a battlespace defined by transparency, precision strikes, and unmanned systems.

Within the Ground Forces, failures in 2022 prompted renewed scrutiny of Soviet-era inheritance and the need to operate effectively under constant surveillance. In the aerospace domain, Russian theorists increasingly emphasise the decisive role of integrated air, space, and information capabilities. Experiences in Ukraine have reinforced the demand for precision-guided weapons, space-enabled targeting, and unmanned systems, all supporting a broader pursuit of information dominance.

The Navy maintains its doctrinal importance as an instrument of global presence and deterrence, despite economic constraints. Cyber operations continue to be framed within a holistic concept of information confrontation rather than as a distinct domain.

Nuclear forces remain the core of Russian deterrence, with modernisation focused on flexibility and survivability. Overall, the war has intensified debate and adaptation, but Russia’s strategic objectives, fiscal limits, and confrontation with the West continue to shape this trajectory, and the Russian view of future warfare.

– A central lesson is the emergence of a “transparent battlefield” dominated by surveillance, drones, and precision strikes, which makes large manoeuvres difficult and produces positional stalemate.

– Ground-forces debate focuses on how to restore effectiveness: some advocate larger forces and fire superiority, while others call for smaller, more flexible formations and organisational overhaul.

– Across services, there is growing emphasis on precision-guided weapons, UAVs, and space-enabled targeting, with unmanned systems viewed as transformative for future warfare.

– The aerospace domain is considered decisive, with future wars expected to feature long-range, high-precision strikes and “non-contact” operations in air, space, and information domains.

– Space and information capabilities are increasingly central: reconnaissance satellites, data networks, and integrated command systems are seen as key to information dominance and rapid targeting.

– Nuclear weapons remain the central pillar of Russian deterrence, underpinning national security and compensating for conventional and economic weaknesses.