The attitude of both the Russian public and the elites regarding the Ukrainian war is steadily hardening. Russian citizens are increasingly perceiving the war in Ukraine as a fight for Russia’s existence. New and more pragmatic hawks are emerging and challenging the old Putin’s elite. The voices calling for peace and negotiations are almost entirely suppressed.

Putin’s Age of Chaos – The Dangers of Russian Disorder

Foreign Affairs

by Tatiana Stanovaya

– the Russian society and elites had followed Putin’s lead in downplaying attacks and incidents within Russia’s borders

– this backfired with Prigozhin’s rebellion, which was a direct consequence of Putin’s hands-off approach and refusal to intervene in time

– In the wake of the rebellion, it has become much harder for the Kremlin to project an aura of unflappable control and political competence

– the social contract in Russia used to be the regime’s promise of stability in exchange for the public granting the regime a mandate to rule. However this has changed:

– Now, after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russians hunger for geopolitical security. The people have delegated to Putin the right to deal with the West—which many Russians believe threatens their country’s very existence—even if that causes domestic turmoil owing to stringent sanctions and crackdowns on liberals.

– Polls show that since the war began, the percentage of Russians who overtly admire Putin has grown from eight to 19 percent, and 68 percent of Russians now say they want him to be reelected, a significant jump from 48 percent of Russians before the war. The war has also increased support for all official institutions: the cabinet, regional governors, parliament, and even the ruling party, United Russia.

– Drone attacks and cross-border raids only fueled support for the war among Russians, with people becoming more hostile toward ordinary Ukrainians and anxious about the fate of the “special military operation.” The attacks did not in any way increase public desire for peace talks or a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, a country that is perceived now more than ever as a threat to Russia’s existence.

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– This situation plays squarely into the hands of Russia’s hard-liners, a camp that consists of the security service, hawkish conservatives, pro-war military correspondents, and radically anti-Western TV pundits.

– The clash of hawks, old and new, will shape Russia’s response to its struggles in Ukraine and at home. The more challenges the regime faces, the more quickly it will evolve into something darker.

– many pro-war activists are calling for radical reforms to establish what would effectively be a military dictatorship.

– These changes will make Russia’s geopolitical actions less predictable, and even contradictory, as the Kremlin reacts to shifting circumstances instead of following its own strategic direction and priorities.

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TATIANA STANOVAYA is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and the Founder and CEO of the political analysis firm R.Politik.