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In the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, much that could go wrong did for the Russian military. As one volunteer organization called KatyaValya recalled:We called all our military friends in (Russian-held) Donetsk, but …
Recent experiments placing large language models in simulated nuclear crises have produced alarming headlines. “Bloodthirsty” AI systems escalate conflicts, threaten nuclear strikes, and behave erratically under simulated pressure. A recent…
It is clear that the U.S.-Israeli decapitation, airpower-centric, and precision strike campaign are again not enough to bring about the two countries’ strategic goals. The United States still finds itself potentially having to commit land forces …
What happens when a country at war stops seriously debating its own strategy and goals?In Israel today, that scenario is no longer theoretical. In the aftermath of Hamas’ surprise attack on Oct. 7, 2023, and the subsequent conflicts in Gaza, Leba…
Six weeks after the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran, what was the political object? Not the military means and objectives — those are the hammer, not the nail. The nail is: What condition in the world, what durable change in …
Oriana Skylar Mastro, Upstart: How China Became a Great Power (Oxford University Press, 2024)Why didn’t China’s rise trigger containment sooner?For three decades, Beijing’s economic weight expanded dramatically, its military mode…
In his long-awaited nuclear deterrence speech, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out his new doctrine of “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée) and — for the first time in history — offered to deploy the French Strat…
The states most likely to draw America into its next major crisis or war are not unknowns. They are the usual suspects: The same handful of states that have threatened the United States repeatedly across decades. Interstate rivals have caused roughly 8…
On March 27, Iranian drones and missiles struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, destroying an E-3 Sentry, an airborne command center for U.S. operations in the region, and damaging multiple KC-135 tankers. It was not the first strike. Earl…
How many energy crises will it take before we stop betting our economies on a fragile oil market?The U.S. and Israeli war with Iran quickly morphed from a regional conflict into a global energy shock. Oil and gas markets have been volatile since the st…