Daniel Miessler on the AI Attack/Defense Balance

His conclusion:

Context wins

Basically whoever can see the most about the target, and can hold that picture in their mind the best, will be best at finding the vulnerabilities the fastest and taking advantage of them. Or, as the defender, applying patches or mitigations the fastest.

And if you’re on the inside you know what the applications do. You know what’s important and what isn’t. And you can use all that internal knowledge to fix things­—hopefully before the baddies take advantage.

Summary and prediction

  1. Attackers will have the advantage for 3-5 years. For less-advanced defender teams, this will take much longer.
October 2, 2025
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Europe Must Prepare for the Long War

OPINION — Russian drones are forcing airports to close and fighter jets are breaching NATO airspace – clear signals of Moscow’s widening hybrid campaign. The cost imbalance is stark, with Europe spending hundreds of thousands to destroy drones worth a…

September 30, 2025
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Should the US Go It Alone in Space?

The US Space Force (USSF) recently published its US Space Force International Partnership Strategy. The USSF international strategy aims to operationalize “strength through partnerships” by aligning allied and partner nations with US space efforts across all strategic levels. However, there are at least two major areas of concern for an effective future USSF international strategy: […]

Should the US Go It Alone in Space? was originally published on Global Security Review.

September 23, 2025
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A New Model for Defense in Greece

OPINION — In a world where global power is no longer solely fought over through use of military might but won through wit, diplomacy, and innovation, Greece is recasting its story. Leading that transformation, at least in Economic Diplomacy, is Greece…

August 8, 2025
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Measuring the Attack/Defense Balance

“Who’s winning on the internet, the attackers or the defenders?”

I’m asked this all the time, and I can only ever give a qualitative hand-wavy answer. But Jason Healey and Tarang Jain’s latest Lawfare piece has amassed data.

The essay provides the first framework for metrics about how we are all doing collectively—and not just how an individual network is doing. Healey wrote to me in email:

The work rests on three key insights: (1) defenders need a framework (based in threat, vulnerability, and consequence) to categorize the flood of potentially relevant security metrics; (2) trends are what matter, not specifics; and (3) to start, we should avoid getting bogged down in collecting data and just use what’s already being reported by amazing teams at Verizon, Cyentia, Mandiant, IBM, FBI, and so many others…

July 30, 2025
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How the Danes See NATO, Trump and Ukraine

OPINION — “The most important part right now is that Europe would be able to buy military equipment here in the U.S. so we can donate these military systems directly to Ukraine. That is also discussion going on right now. I think [President] Trump is …

July 15, 2025
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